Do not panic: there is no indication that the Phlegraean Fields will erupt overnight… but you will still have to monitor the region closely.
Italy is home to several remarkable volcanoes such as Etna, in Sicily, or the famous Vesuvius, responsible for the cataclysm that froze the inhabitants of Pompeii for eternity. But lately, it’s another name a little less known to the general public that is attracting the attention of geologists; they observed worrying signs of activity on the side of the Campi Flegrei, or Phlegraean Fields, a volcanic area near Naples.
This region, whose name means “ burning fields “, is a vast network of 24 volcanic buildings located a few kilometers from Naples. The whole is considered a Class 8 ultra-Plinian volcano — i.e. a supervolcano capable of producing eruptions of apocalyptic proportions.
And that’s not a sensationalist exaggeration; the term is also explicitly included in the official definition of the Volcanic Explosivity Index, which classifies eruptions according to their violence. For reference, the terrible Hunga Tonga eruption that impacted the entire Earth in 2022 (see our article) only reached a score of 5 on this same scale.
Supervolcanoes, an underestimated threat
The eruption of a class 8 supervolcano could therefore have terrible consequences. On paper, this is potentially a existential threat for Humanity. Volcanologists interested in these scenarios believe that such an event could be devastating, both locally and globally.
A Class 8 eruption could eject hundreds of tons of incandescent material. Enough to devastate the land for miles around. These discharges would also have an immense impact on the climate. With thousands of cubic meters of sulfur and toxic ash dumped into the atmosphere, the planet would find itself immersed in a volcanic winter that could last for years. Such a scenario would likely cause a mass extinction, not to mention the consequences for transportation, logistics, and transportation services on a planetary scale.
For specialists, the monitoring of supervolcanoes such as Yellowstone or the Phlegraean fields is therefore a priority. It is in this context that in the fall of 2022, a team of researchers wanted to sound the alarm remembering that the world was extremely unprepared for a potential super-eruption.
Volcanoes: the world is not at all ready for the next super-eruption
A crust more fragile than ever
The new study, conducted jointly by two teams from University College London and the Italian National Institute for Research in Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), is a continuation of this work. They surveyed the Phlegrean Fields, which last erupted in 1538, to determine if they could pose a short-term threat.
They began by reviewing numerous seismic and topological surveys. This allowed them to determine that the area was currently crossing a relatively long period of activity. Since April, the region has been shaken by more than 600 small earthquakes, which is a record. However, for volcanologists, it is often a warning signal, because seismic and volcanic activities are closely linked.
They also observed that the town of Pozzuoli, located near the top of the building, had risen about 4 meters since the 1950s. Again, this is significant information. This increase in altitude may indeed be related to the accumulation of gas below. However, beyond a certain threshold, the pressure can become significant enough to lead to a rupture of the crust, thus opening the way to an eruption.
The researchers then integrated all these parameters into a computer model. This allowed them to simulate the intensity of the mechanical stresses exerted on the volcano. And the results turned out to be a tad worrying. The model indeed suggests that the crust under the Campi Flegrei n / A never been so close to giving in ; at present, its resistance would have dropped by two thirds compared to the last estimate, which dates from 1984.
The precautionary principle in the face of uncertainty
But the researchers also insist that there is no reason yet to give in to catastrophism. This does not mean that a cataclysmic super-eruption will wipe Italy off the map anytime soon. So far, researchers have no found no explicit sign of an impending eruption.
And even if that were to happen, it wouldn’t necessarily be the start of the Apocalypse. Certainly, the destructive potential of the Phlegraean fields is immense. But a hell of an alignment of the planets would be needed for it to generate a Class 8 flare.
It would indeed be necessary that gas and volcanic material have been able to accumulate in several almost entirely hermetic chambers for very long years. And fortunately, it is relatively unlikely knowing the size of the building. According to the researchers, the most probable scenario remains that of a modest eruptionlimited to a part of the supervolcano.
Despite these reassuring details, the researchers also point out that the probability of a cataclysmic eruption is not entirely negligible. The message is clear : it will imperatively be necessary to monitor the Phlegrean fields like milk on the fire.
” It’s the same for all the volcanoes that have been dormant for generations. The Phlegraean fields could settle into a new cycle of swelling, then subsidence, as seen on other volcanoes, but it could also go completely back to sleep. “, explains Srtefano Carlino, researcher at the Observatory of Vesuvius. ” We cannot yet say for sure what will happen. The important thing is to be prepared for all possible outcomes. »
The text of the study is available here.
